{"id":2808,"date":"2021-04-26T14:43:16","date_gmt":"2021-04-26T12:43:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/flex.uni-frankfurt.de\/?p=2808"},"modified":"2021-05-26T18:09:32","modified_gmt":"2021-05-26T16:09:32","slug":"belief-elicitation-with-multiple-point-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/flex.uni-frankfurt.de\/index.php\/publications\/belief-elicitation-with-multiple-point-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"custom-pagination-text-research-img\"><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.euroecorev.2021.103700\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-897 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/flex.uni-frankfurt.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/X00142921-e1554029710217.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"205\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"custom-pagination-text-research-content\">\n<p>Markus Eyting, Patrick Schmidt, 2021,<em> European Economic Review<\/em>, 135, 103700<em><br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"custom-pagination-text-research-content\">\n<p><!--more Continue reading--><\/p>\n<div class=\"custom-pagination-text-research-content\"><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.euroecorev.2021.103700\">link to publication<\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"custom-pagination-text-research-abstract\">Abstract:<br \/>\nWe propose a simple, incentive compatible procedure based on binarized linear scoring rules to elicit beliefs about real-valued outcomes &#8211;\u00a0<em>multiple point predictions<\/em>. Simultaneously eliciting multiple point predictions with linear incentives reveals the subjective probability distribution without pre-defined intervals or probabilistic statements. We show that the approach is theoretically as robust as existing methods, while adapting flexibly to different beliefs. In a laboratory experiment, we compare our procedure to the standard approach of eliciting discrete probabilities on pre-defined intervals. We find that elicitation with multiple point predictions is faster, perceived as less difficult and more consistent with a subsequent decision. We further find that multiple point predictions are more accurate if beliefs vary between participants. Finally, we provide experimental evidence that pre-defined intervals anchor reports.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markus Eyting, Patrick Schmidt, 2021, European Economic Review, 135, 103700<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2808","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-publications"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/flex.uni-frankfurt.de\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2808","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/flex.uni-frankfurt.de\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/flex.uni-frankfurt.de\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flex.uni-frankfurt.de\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flex.uni-frankfurt.de\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2808"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/flex.uni-frankfurt.de\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2808\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2834,"href":"https:\/\/flex.uni-frankfurt.de\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2808\/revisions\/2834"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/flex.uni-frankfurt.de\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2808"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flex.uni-frankfurt.de\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2808"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flex.uni-frankfurt.de\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2808"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}